Detterence News and Development: 2004 - 1995
Article Examines
Statistical Models of Measuring Deterrence
In the July 2004 Skeptical Enquirer, Rutgers
Sociology professor Ted Goertzel examines the methods - and the variant
results that emerge - used in studying the deterrent effect of
executions on homicide. Read
the article Here.
Scientific American
Looks at Crime Rates
In his Scientific American
magazine article entitled, "The Case of the Unsolved Crime Decline,"
criminologist Richard Rosenfeld examines why U.S. crime rates dropped
more than 40% in the 1990's and what lessons current policy-makers can
learn from this decline. Rosenfeld provides an
overview and evaluation of previous research showing a link in the
crime rate decline and factors such as changes in demographics,
law-enforcement practices, economic conditions, incarceration rates,
domestic violence and firearm policies, and the use of guns by young
drug dealers. He concludes that while each of these may have
contributed toward the decline in serious violent and property crime
rates, some of the policies
also produced unintended policy effects that could have been avoided if
research-based policy experiments had been conducted. For
example, stiffer sentences for adult drug offenders, a policy designed
to deter crime, may actually facilitate the criminal careers and
shorten the lives of the youthful drug sellers who take their place.
Based on his research, Rosenfeld provides three lessons that he
believes society can draw that may help anticipate and even head off
the next crime rate rise. These lessons include dividing crime trends
into their component parts, looking for unintended policy effects and
engaging in research-based policy experiments before new programs are
implemented. (Scientific American, February 2004) See Resources.
Study Identifies
Flaws in Recent Deterrence Research
A new study conducted by Professor Richard Berk of the UCLA
Department
of Statistics has identified significant statistical problems with the
data analysis used to support recent studies claiming to show that
executions deter crime in the United States. In "New Claims about
Executions and General Deterrence: Deja Vu All Over Again?," Professor
Berk addresses the problem of "influence," which occurs when a very
small and atypical fraction of the available data dominates the
statistical results of a study. He found that this statistical problem
is found in a number of recent studies claiming to show that capital
punishment deters violent crime. The UCLA study conducted by Berk
found that in many instances the number of executions by state and year
is the key explanatory variable used by researchers, despite the fact
that many states in most years execute no one and few states in
particular years execute more than five individuals. These values
represent about 1% of the available observations that could have been
used by researchers to draw conclusions for earlier studies claiming to
find that capital punishment is a deterrent. In Professor Berk's study,
a re-analysis of the existing data shows that claims of deterrence are
a statistical artifact of this anomalous 1%.
In the abstract, Berk writes:
"A number of papers have recently appeared claiming to show that in the United States executions deter serious crime. There are many statistical problems with the data analyses reported. This paper addresses the problem of "influence," which occurs when a very small and atypical fraction of the data dominate the statistical results. The number of executions by state and year is the key explanatory variable, and most states in most years execute no one. A very few states in particular years execute more than 5 individuals. Such values represent about 1% of the available observations. Re-analyses of the existing data are presented showing that claims of deterrence are a statistical artifact of this anomalous 1%."
(Published on UCLA's Web site, July 19, 2004). Read the
study. See Resources.
Gallup Poll Finds
Decreased Support for Death Penalty When Compared with Life Sentence
A May 2004 Gallup Poll found that a growing number
of Americans support a sentence of life without parole rather than the
death penalty for those
convicted of murder. Gallup found that 46% of respondents
favor life imprisonment over the death penalty, up from 44% in May
2003. During that same time frame, support for capital
punishment as an alternative fell from 53% to 50%. The poll also
revealed a growing
skepticism that the death penalty deters crime, with 62% of those
polled saying that it is not a deterrent.
These percentages are a dramatic shift from the responses given to this
same question in 1991, when 51% of Americans believed the death penalty
deterred crime and only 41% believed it did not. Only 55% of those
polled responded that they believed the death penalty is implemented
fairly, down from 60% in 2003.
When not offered an alternative sentence, 71% supported the death
penalty and 26% opposed. The overall support is about the same as that
reported in 2002, but down from the 80% support in 1994. (Gallup Poll
News Service, June 2, 2004) Read
the Gallup Press Release. See Public
Opinion. See also Life
Without Parole.
FBI Report
Reveals Murder Rate Rise in the South
According to the FBI's Preliminary Uniform
Crime Report for 2002, the murder rate in the South increased
by
2.1% while the murder rate in the Northeast decreased by almost
5%. The South accounts for 82% of all executions since 1976; the
Northeast
accounts for less than 1%. Read
the report. (FBI Preliminary Uniform Crime Report 2002, June 16,
2003).
Capital
Punishment
and Deterrence: Examining the Effect of Executions on Murder in Texas.
Authors John Sorenson, Robert Wrinkle, Victoria Brewer, and
James
Marquart
examined executions in Texas between 1984 and 1997. They speculated
that
if a deterrent effect were to exist, it would be found in Texas because
of the high number of death sentences and executions within the state.
Using patterns in executions across the study period and the relatively
steady rate of murders in Texas, the authors found no evidence of a
deterrent
effect. The study concluded that the number of executions was unrelated
to murder rates in general, and that the number of executions was
unrelated
to felony rates. (45 Crime and Delinquency 481-93 (1999)).
Deterrence,
Brutalization, and the Death Penalty: Another Examination of
Oklahoma's
Return to Capital Punishment. In this study, author
William
Bailey
speculated that if executions had a deterrent effect in Oklahoma, it
would
be observable by comparing murder rates and rates of sub-types of
murder,
such as felony-murder, stranger robbery-related killings, stranger
non-felony
murder, and argument-related killings, before and after the resumption
of executions. Bailey examined the period between 1989 and 1991 for
total
killings and sub-types of killing. After controlling for a number of
variables,
Bailey found that there was no evidence for a deterrent effect. He did,
however, find that there was a significant increase in stranger
killings and non-felony stranger killings after Oklahoma resumed
executions
after a 25-year moratorium. (36 Criminology 711-33 (1998)).
Effects
of
an Execution on Homicides in California. Author Ernie
Thompson
examined criminal homicides in Los Angeles before and after
California's
execution of Robert Harris in 1992, the state's first execution
after a
25-year moratorium. Thompson found slight increases in
homicides
during the eight months following the execution. (3 Homicide
Studies
129-150
(1999)).
The
Geography
of Execution: The Capital Punishment Quagmire in America. Keith
Harries and Derral Cheatwood studied differences in homicides and
violent
crime in 293 pairs of counties. Counties were matched in pairs based on
geographic location, regional context, historical development,
demographic
and economic variables. The pairs shared a contiguous border, but
differed
on use of capital punishment. The authors found no support for a
deterrent
effect of capital punishment at the county level comparing matched
counties
inside and outside states with capital punishment, with and without a
death
row population, and with and without executions. The authors did find higher
violent crime rates in death penalty counties. (Rowman and Littlefiled
Publishers, Lanham, MD (1997))
| South Has
Highest Murder Rate in 2001
According to data released on October 28 as part of the FBI's Uniform Crime Report for 2001, the South again has the highest murder rate of the four regions in the United States. The South was also the only region above the national average. In 2001, almost 80% of executions in the country occurred in the South. The report noted that the Texas crime rate rose 4% in 2001, nearly five times the national average, and the state posted a 7.6% increase in homicides. At the same time, the total number of executions in Texas is more than three times that of any other state in the nation. The Northeast, the region with the lowest murder rate, had no executions in 2001. (See DPIC's Execution Statistics, Crime in the United States, 2001, New York Times and Houston Chronicle, October 29, 2002) |
|
Homicide Rates Fall in Canada After
Abolition of Death Penalty
The abolition of the death penalty in Canada in
1976 has not led to increased homicide rates. Statistics Canada reports
that the number of homicides in Canada in 2001 (554) was 23% lower than
the number of homicides in 1975 (721), the year before the death
penalty
was abolished. In addition, homicide rates in Canada are generally
three times lower than homicide rates in the U.S., which uses the death
penalty. For example, according to the U.S. Bureau of Justice
Statistics,
the homicide rate in the U.S. in 1999 was 5.7 per 100,000 population
and
the rate in Canada was only 1.8. Canada currently sentences those
convicted of murder to life sentences with parole eligibility. (Issues
Direct.com,
8/4/02).
 |
Latest
Uniform
Crime Report Shows Highest Murder Rate Again in the South
The latest FBI Uniform Crime Report shows that in 2000, the national murder rate decreased 3.1% from 1999, with the smallest decline in the South. The South remains the region with the highest murder rate, 6.8 victims per 100,000, compared to 5.1 in the West and Midwest, and 4.0 in the Northeast. (Crime in the U.S. 2000, FBI Uniform Crime Reports, October 2001) Read the report. Since the death penalty was reinstated, over 80% of all executions have occurred in the South, the region with the highest murder rate. The Northeast, the region with the lowest murder rate, has accounted for less than 1% of the executions. The FBI report also showed that in 2000, 49% of murder victims were white and 48.5% are black. Although blacks and whites are victims of murder in about equal numbers, over 80% of the victims in death penalty cases resulting in execution since 1976 have been white. See also, executions by region, and race and the death penalty. |
| Deterrence:
U.S. Murder Rate Greatly Exceeds European Non-Death Penalty Nations
Data released by the British Home Office reveals that the United States, which retains the death penalty, has a murder rate that is more than three times that of many of its European allies that have banned capital punishment. (New York Times, May 11, 2002). The data challenges the argument that the death penalty is a deterrent to murder. There are more than 110 nations around the world that have banned the death penalty in law or practice. See also, International Developments. |
 |
At her
weekly
Justice
Department news briefing, U.S.
Attorney General Janet Reno said
that she has yet to find any evidence that the death penalty deters
crime.
"I have inquired for most of my adult life about studies that might
show
that the death penalty is a deterrent. And I have not seen any research
that would substantiate that point," said Reno. (Reuters, 1/21/00)
The Bureau of
Justice
Statistics reports that the South repeatedly has the highest
murder
rate. In 1999, it was the only region with a murder rate above
the
national rate. The South accounts for 80% of executions. The Northeast,
which has less than 1% of all executions in the U.S., has the lowest
murder
rate.